The report is focused on the study of three mathematical models describing the relationship between demand and the average insurance tariff: a linear model, a model with constant elasticity, and a model with time-varying elasticity.
The parameters of these models were calculated using the least squares method, allowing for the assessment of their adequacy based on the coefficient of determination.
The time-varying elasticity model demonstrated the highest accuracy in long-term demand forecasting.
Additionally, by overlaying the graphs of these models, the optimal range of insurance tariffs (0.75% to 1.25%) was identified, which is a significant result for economic analysis and decision-making.
| Presentation file: | Прогнозирование спроса на основе страховых тарифов модели эластичности и временной изменчивости.pptx |