Kanev V.   Poletaykin A.N.   Kuleshova N.V.   Shevtsova Y.  

Optimizing risk-free model of development of educational organization based on modified risk thermometer

Reporter: Kuleshova N.V.

Educational Organizations (EO), is an element of the unstable social and economic environment of society and stand in need of permanent risk management, making threat to EO development. In spite of the fact that not enough attention is paid to ЕO risk management questions now, process of risk’s management is implemented indirectly. It is possible to consider mechanisms of quality assessment of educational activity and training of students as procedures of a risk management in higher education institution. This is the requirement of modern FSES HE (3++). At the same time at the initial stage of implementation at culture of risk management in the EO business environment we need to have a simple, easy-to-understand and effective (in terms of resources for implementation and  support of its stable functioning) mechanism. One of such mechanisms is a risk thermometer (RT).

The methodology of RT reconstructs statistically processed results of poll taken from a questionnaire into an integrated indicator that can be interpreted as the risk temperature of an educational program, which is offered to consider as a degree of its corresponding to requirements of FSES HE. During this research, it was confirmed strong correlation between the questionnaire of scientific and pedagogical employees, which used in accreditation procedure of the basic educational program (BEP) [1], and measurement tasks of risk temperature in BEP. This questionnaire considers EO things, which are under risk (processes, personnel, systems, reputation) and allows estimating their state in terms of degree of corresponding to requirements of FSES HE.
Monitoring of a risk background is realized by means of the generalized system indicators of BEP called as key indicators of risk (Key Risk Indicators, KRI): 1) Structure of BEP; 2) System-wide requirements to realization of EO; 3) Staffing of BEP; 4) Material support of BEP; 5) General conditions of educational process organization. The substantial essence of indicators of PT EO allowed to reveal characteristic risks, which indicators they are. Revealing and estimation of these risks by means of the device of fuzzy logic with application of temperature data of BEP allowed to determinate the optimal complex of developing actions which realization will provide permanent risk-free development of EO.

1. Methodical recommendations for accreditation procedure of the basic educational programs. М: Federal State Budgetary Institution «Rosakkredagentstvo», 2015. 164 p.

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